Uranium Price Predictions: What Comes Next?

Today we’re going to have a bit of fun. 🎉

We’re diving into the question every nuclear investor is quietly (or loudly) asking: how high can it go? 

We’ll look at charts, history, and analyst takes to build a case for what this bull run might look like at its peak…

📉 Where We Are Now

After racing past $100/lb in the term market and flirting with $70+ spot, uranium’s taking a breather. Spot prices hovered around $63–$64/lb in March 2025, before rebounding back above $70/lb by May. The volatility may have eased, but the setup remains electrifying.

This phase is eerily calm; not because the market is weak, but because it’s consolidating. Underneath the surface, all the bullish ingredients are still simmering. The price is holding steady, but the pressure is building.

⚖️ The Supply/Demand Mismatch

Let’s begin with the bedrock of this market: a structural gap between supply and demand.

• 2024 global reactor demand: ~176 million lbs

• 2024 global mine production: ~156 million lbs

We’re running a 20 million lb/year deficit. And that doesn’t even account for inventory restocking or new demand from advanced reactors. This gap has been papered over with secondary supplies: government stockpiles, downblended military material, and tails re-enrichment. But that well is not bottomless.

Secondary sources are finite. The Russian HEU deal is long gone. U.S. and EU governments are now accumulating uranium, not releasing it. The market is quietly flipping from surplus to scarcity, and it’s doing so at a time when demand is expanding.

In short: we’re walking into a structural supply crunch, and the clock is ticking.

And don’t overlook the role of financial institutions. Funds like the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) have been hoarding pounds of uranium off-market, locking it away in warehouses and removing liquidity from the market. 38.5 million pounds to be precise. That’s a quarter of the annual uranium demand.

These financial entities aren’t using uranium for power; they’re betting on price. And their influence is growing.

And while the spot market has been doing its dance, the term market has barely flinched. Prices there have stayed steady around $80/lb. That tells you something: utilities are willing to pay extra for certainty, especially when supply is tight.

And tight it is. Between mining shortfalls, supply chain issues, and new reactors coming online, there’s not a whole lot of extra uranium sitting around. Which is why more folks are betting that spot prices are gearing up for another leg higher.

At the end of the day the uranium thesis is a supply/demand story.

Let’s look at the forces shaping this market.

TL;DR: The uranium market is consolidating after a big run, but the fundamentals (tight supply, rising demand, nuclear buildout, geopolitical shifts) point to structurally higher prices ahead. Here’s the full breakdown of why uranium still has room to run.

🔄 Understanding Uranium Cycles

Uranium doesn’t trade like tech stocks or even other commodities. It moves in violent, drawn-out cycles, where long periods of stagnation are followed by rapid, almost vertical moves.

Here’s why:

1. Demand is steady but slow-moving – Utilities don’t buy uranium every day. They sign long-term contracts every few years. Once they’re covered, they disappear from the market until they panic when coverage runs out.

2. Supply is highly inelastic – You can’t just “turn on” a uranium mine. Projects take years to permit, finance, and restart. Even existing mines like McArthur River or Langer Heinrich require massive lead times.

3. Prices overcorrect in both directions – In the 2000s bull run, uranium went from $10 to $137/lb. After Fukushima, it crashed to the $20s and stayed there for nearly a decade. Today, with prices rebounding, new supply is again slow to respond.

This mismatch, steady demand and sluggish supply, is what fuels uranium cycles.

This is key to your investment thesis. If you understand the structure of these cycles, you’ll understand:

• Why patience pays

• Why volatility is not a sign of failure, but part of the game

• Why the real money is made by those who hold through the boring and bloody phases

🚀 What’s Fueling the Bull Run?

🌍 Global Drivers: Climate Change, Energy Security, and Surging AI/Data Center Demand

The nuclear resurgence is driven by powerful, overlapping macro forces:

• Climate Change: Nuclear is a dispatchable, low-carbon energy source, critical to decarbonizing electricity grids and supporting intermittent renewables.

• Energy Security: Geopolitical tensions and the drive for energy independence are prompting countries to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, and nuclear offers a long-term, stable alternative.

• AI/Data Centers: Rapid digitalization and AI development are driving up electricity demand. Tech giants are turning to nuclear to meet 24/7 clean energy needs. Microsoft, Amazon, and Google have already made public investments or Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) with nuclear providers.

📜 Supportive Policy Landscape: US, EU, and Asian Initiatives

United States:

• Bipartisan executive orders and the ADVANCE Act have slashed regulatory timelines for new reactors.

• Trump’s May 2025 executive orders poured fuel on the fire: reviving domestic enrichment, prioritizing fuel cycle security, and cutting NRC red tape.

• Over $4 billion allocated to secure domestic uranium supplies.

• More than 200 nuclear-supportive bills introduced in the last year.

• U.S. states are actively passing laws to enable advanced nuclear deployments.

European Union:

• The REPowerEU plan seeks to eliminate Russian fossil and nuclear imports by 2027.

• Poland’s $30 billion deal with Westinghouse and Bechtel highlights this strategic realignment.

• Germany has stopped opposing nuclear energy

• Spain and Belgium has reversed their nuclear phaseout

• France plans to build six new reactors, with an option for eight more.

Asia:

• China plans to build up to 500 GW of nuclear capacity by 2050.

• Japan is restarting reactors.

• South Korea is exporting SMRs to Southeast Asia.

• India is targeting 22 GW of nuclear by 2031.

Canada:

• Ontario is building new reactors.

• Canada is expanding as a uranium supplier but faces potential trade tariffs from the U.S.

The net effect: strong, structural, and bipartisan support for nuclear expansion across multiple continents.

Globally, over 60 nuclear reactors are currently under construction, with hundreds more in the proposal or planning stages. From China’s rapid buildout to new SMRs breaking ground in the U.S., we’re not just entering a policy shift; we’re entering a construction cycle.

🔬 Tech Leap: Why This Isn’t Just a Repeat of 2007

This cycle is different. Here’s why: the tech has matured.

• Small Modular Reactors (SMRs): Factory-fabricated, faster to deploy, and perfectly sized for off-grid, industrial, and data center use. They can be stacked like legos, or deployed solo.

• Advanced fuels: Lightbridge’s metallic fuel rods and Terrestrial Energy’s molten salt reactors promise better safety, heat transfer, and fuel utilization.

• Digital twins & AI-powered design: Engineers can simulate reactor performance, predict maintenance, and streamline construction.

Over 80 SMR designs are now being developed globally. Investors love the modular nature since it reduces risk and offers repeatable, scalable deployments.

If large reactors were the 747s of the nuclear fleet, SMRs are the Teslas. And Wall Street is finally paying attention.

📊 Industry Outlook and Growth Projections

The outlook for nuclear energy is overwhelmingly positive, with significant growth projected by leading international bodies and industry associations.

⛏️ Supply: The Bottleneck Nobody Can Ignore

You can’t burn fuel that doesn’t exist. And the uranium supply chain is full of choke points.

🎯 Mine Production: Still Lagging

• Cameco’s Inkai JV in Kazakhstan lost three weeks of production in Q1 2025.

• Global production sits around 155M lbs, still shy of current demand.

• The Kazatomprom ramp-up is slower than expected due to reagent shortages.

• Incentive prices for new mines are now estimated to be $90–$110/lb. Few projects pencil at $70/lb.

🧪 Midstream Squeeze: Conversion + Enrichment

• Russia controls ~40% of conversion and enrichment capacity.

• Western shift away from Russian services is spiking conversion prices: $15/kgU → $40/kgU.

• Delays at Orano’s COMURHEX II and limited Western enrichment capacity create backlogs.

🕰️ Time Lag: New Mines Take a Decade

• Even with fast-tracking, new projects take 10–15 years.

• Environmental permitting remains slow. Political support doesn’t always translate into shovels.

📈 How High Could It Go?

Ok, let’s talk numbers.

The last time uranium went parabolic was in 2007, when spot prices shot up to $136/lbs (which would be $213/lbs today, adjusted for inflation). That surge was driven by a perfect storm: utilities restocking like crazy, supply disruptions, and a rush of speculative buying.

Could we get there again? Maybe not tomorrow. But history shows this market can get wild, fast.

📊 But Don’t Just Take Our Word for It, What Are The Analysts Saying?

Here's what some of the big names in finance and nuclear forecasting are predicting:

• Bank of America thinks uranium could hit $110/lbs by 2026, driven by structural supply shortages and growing SMR demand. They cite sovereign stockpiling and utility contracting as key tailwinds.

• Sprott Asset Management is bullish long-term. They expect prices to move beyond $100/lbs in 2025, highlighting macro trends like AI-driven electricity demand and Western nuclear resurgence.

• UxC, the top uranium consultancy, says the market could hit $130/lbs by 2030. They’ve called for a spot price floor of $75/lbs, suggesting the bottom may be higher than many think.

• Global X (Australia) forecasts uranium could bounce back to $100/lbs in the next 12–18 months, especially with declining secondary supply and surging Asian demand.

• Carbon Credits sees the price holding between $85–$105/lbs into 2026.

The consensus? Upward pressure is real, and it’s not going away anytime soon.

The Term Market: Where the Real Action Is

Let’s get one thing straight: uranium isn’t traded like oil or gold. There’s no bustling exchange with flashing screens and tickers. Instead, the vast majority of uranium changes hands behind closed doors through long-term contracts, and that’s where most of the real action is.

Each year, the spot market accounts for around 10 million pounds of uranium transactions. That might sound like a lot until you look at the contract (term) market, where utilities secure over 100 million pounds annually through long-term deals. In fact, 80–90% of a utility’s fuel needs are fulfilled this way.

Cameco alone has locked in contracts to deliver ~28 million pounds per year from 2025–2029. That’s nearly triple the volume of the entire spot market.

That means roughly 90% of uranium buying happens behind closed doors.

Utilities prefer it that way. Long-term contracts give them price stability, predictable budgets, and less stress when spot prices spike.

Spot Market = Short-term, small volume, high volatility.

Term Market = Long-term, large volume, price stability.

As of April 2025, Spot prices ranged from $65–$68/lb. But Term prices held firm at around $80/lb, and that’s base escalated. Market-related contracts (with floors/ceilings) are likely even higher. As we said earlier; utilities are paying a premium to secure long term fuel commitments.

Why Everyone Still Watches Spot

Even though most uranium gets sold in the term market, spot still gets all the attention. Why?

• It’s the only publicly visible price signal.

• It gives clues about short-term tightness.

• And frankly, it makes for better headlines.

But don’t get it twisted; spot is mostly for traders and financial players. Utilities care about term contracts.

💰 How Contracts Work

Utilities and suppliers usually strike deals in one of two ways:

• RFPs (Requests for Proposals) – The utility says “We need X pounds,” and suppliers bid.

• Off-Market Deals – Quiet, relationship-driven negotiations.

Contracts can be structured in all kinds of creative ways, some are 60% fixed price, 40% market-indexed. Others float entirely with spot but have a floor and a ceiling to manage risk.

Cameco, one of the world largest uranium companies, for instance, is targeting contracts with a $70 floor and a $130 ceiling. That averages out to about $100/lb.

📊 Why This Matters for Investors

• Term market drives fundamentals — Spot is noisy, term tells the real story.

• Public prices are just a snapshot — Actual contract terms vary widely.

• Understanding contract structures = understanding producer earnings.

🤔 Do Rising Prices Hurt Utilities?

Let’s be real: if uranium doubles in price, do utilities panic, and stop buying uranium? No. Here’s why:

Uranium is a small piece of the puzzle – It only makes up 2–3% of the total cost of running a nuclear plant.

Price hikes don’t move the needle much – A 50% increase in uranium cost might only bump electricity prices by 5%.

Gas and coal are way more sensitive – That same increase in gas prices could spike electricity costs by 30% or more.

Most utilities lock in prices – Thanks to long-term contracts, they’re buffered from short-term swings.

Even if term contract prices rise, utilities aren’t going to shut down reactors. These plants are multibillion-dollar assets with long lifespans. You don’t just turn them off because fuel got more expensive.

👷‍♂️ What It Means for Miners

Let’s not forget the producers. When uranium prices rise, here’s what happens on their side:

1. Higher Profit Margins

Uranium miners have fairly steady operating costs. So when prices go up it goes straight to the bottom line.

2. Stock Prices Follow

Higher uranium prices usually translate into higher stock prices for miners. Investors anticipate stronger earnings, and that optimism gets priced into shares.

This effect is even more dramatic for junior miners and developers, who trade as a kind of leveraged bet on uranium itself.

3. Capital Flows Return

Rising prices attract capital. Explorers raise more money. Developers secure financing. Mergers and acquisitions pick up. It becomes easier to get projects permitted and built.

For a sector that’s been underfunded for years, this wave of investment is sorely needed.

This is why uranium miners tend to offer leverage to the price of uranium, outperforming in rising markets while underperforming in falling markets.

🧠 TL;DR: Uranium’s Just Getting Started

If you’ve made it this far, here’s the quick takeaway:

• Demand is growing fast thanks to new reactors, SMRs, and AI-driven electricity needs.

• Supply is still lagging, both in mining and the broader fuel cycle.

• Geopolitics are reshaping the market, and pushing countries to secure friendly, reliable sources.

• Spot price makes the headlines, but term contracts drive the industry.

• Rising prices = more margin, more investment, and long-term momentum.

It’s not just a moment. It’s the start of a new era for nuclear.

Thanks for reading! We’re thrilled to have you onboard.

This is just the beginning. Over the coming months, we’ll keep you ahead of the curve with real-time analysis, portfolio updates, and market breakdowns.

Here’s to the next chapter in the nuclear story. Let’s build it together.

What’s next? In the next post, I’ll walk you through exactly how to build a smart uranium portfolio, whether you’re just getting started or looking to scale up. We’ll cover dollar-cost averaging, diversification, and how to balance uranium, uranium miners and next-gen nuclear tech companies.

👉 Next up: How to Build Your Portfolio for the Nuclear Bull Run

DISCLAIMER: We're not your financial advisor. This is for informational and educational purposes only. Always do your own research, and don’t make decisions based on internet strangers (even nuclear-obsessed ones like us). Nothing contained in this report should be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities.