Welcome to Nuclear Update.

Uranium has been having a moment.

Spot prices in the mid-to-high $80s. Term contracts near $90. Utility procurement back in earnest. SMR announcements landing more or less weekly.

And on May 15^th, Goldman Sachs has added small modular reactors to its uranium model for the first time.

The result was a 17% upside to their long-term demand estimate, an additional 62 million pounds of uranium demand, and a cumulative supply deficit of 2.3 billion pounds between 2025 and 2045.

That is a real number, from a real bank, in a real published report.

What the report does not do is the math on where those 2.3 billion pounds are actually going to come from.

That part is more interesting than the headline.

This is a sponsored feature in collaboration with F4 Uranium (TSXV: FFU). DISSEMINATED ON BEHALF OF F4 Uranium Corp. (full disclaimer at the bottom).

⚛️ The Deficit Everyone Is Looking At

Goldman Sachs note is straightforward enough on its face.

Add SMRs to the demand side. Roughly 46 GW of cumulative deployments by 2045. That lifts the 2045 nuclear generation forecast by about 6%, and pushes annual uranium demand 17% higher than the prior estimate.

The supply side already had a gap. And with SMRs added, the gap widens to a cumulative 2.3 billion pounds through 2045.

That is the headline number. It is real, it is significant, and it is probably conservative.

The model assumes mine supply broadly keeps pace with current trajectories. Anyone who has watched this sector for more than ten minutes knows that mines slip and grades decline.

But the part of Goldman’s note that does not show up on a chart is timing.

A cumulative deficit through 2045 is not evenly distributed across twenty years. The first half is mostly covered by existing mines, inventories, and secondary supply. The deficit gets harder the further you push into the back half (the 2030s, the 2040s).

Which raises a question Goldman does not answer.

⛏️ The Timing Problem Nobody Wants to Do the Math On

Here is the part of the uranium story that does not fit cleanly on a slide.

A uranium mine takes roughly ten to fifteen years to go from discovery to first pound.

That is not a worst case. That is the normal case.

Now apply that math to Goldman's deficit window.

Anything that needs to produce pounds in 2040 has to be in advanced permitting around 2032. To be in advanced permitting in 2032, it needs to be a defined resource around 2028. To be a defined resource in 2028, it needs to be a drill bit in the ground right now.

Mines that exist today are already counted in Goldman's supply forecast. Anything that closes the 2.3 billion pound gap in the back half of the window has to come from deposits that are either not yet found, or currently early in exploration.

In other words, the pounds that fill the late stage of Goldman's gap are not in any mine plan today. They are in the work being done in 2026, on properties that nobody has put a name on yet.

Sure, you can argue with the size of the deficit. You cannot really argue with the clock.

🗺️ Why Not All Drill Bits Are Equal

Uranium is found on every continent. But economic uranium is found on far fewer of them.

And the kind of uranium that can actually move the needle on a billion-pound deficit (high grade, real volume, stable jurisdiction) is concentrated in essentially one place.

We covered the geology of the Athabasca Basin in the last F4 issue, so we will not relitigate 1.7 billion years of basin formation here.

The short version. Deposits in the basin grade roughly 20 times the global uranium average.

One good Athabasca discovery is worth a meaningful share of the deficit math on its own. Ten mediocre discoveries elsewhere often are not.

That changes the question. When you are staring at a 2.3 billion pound gap and asking who plugs it, the answer is not "more exploration" in general. It is exploration in the right place, by the right team, with enough ground to get a real shot on goal.

⚛️ F4 Uranium

That brings us to F4 Uranium.

F4 Uranium (TSXV: FFU) was spun out of F3 Uranium in August 2024. They are exploring 16 properties across roughly 157,530 hectares in the Athabasca Basin.

The team behind it has made four consecutive uranium discoveries in this basin. These include Triple R, which became Fission Uranium and was acquired by Paladin Energy for approximately C$1.14 billion, and the JR Zone, which carries a maiden indicated resource of 11.8 million pounds U₃O₈.

Murphy Lake, The Drill Is Running

The ground EM survey at Murphy Lake completed in early May.

The preliminary interpretation extended the prospective conductor systems on the property by an additional 1.45 kilometres, materially expanding the high-priority drill target area and lining up with the corridor hosting ML22-006, which previously intersected 0.242% U₃O₈ in basement rocks.

Target expansion is not just a geological line item.

When the macro question is whether enough credible swings are being taken to plug a billion-pound gap, each new conductor zone is a discrete chance to hit. And this is in a basin where one hit moves the math.

Drilling commenced in the middle of May 2026, fully funded by UraniumX Discovery Corp. under the earn-in agreement that lets UraniumX acquire up to a 70% interest in exchange for up to $18 million in exploration spending.

F4 retains 30% and operates the program.

This is the part of Goldman's thesis that gets glossed over.

The 2.3 billion pound gap is not solved by drilling at some point in the future. It is solved by drilling right now, in the right basin, while spot prices reward discovery and partner capital is willing to fund it.

F4's most advanced property is being drilled this month and not on F4's balance sheet. First assays are expected through the summer.

For context on the neighborhood, Murphy Lake sits 4.7 kilometres south of IsoEnergy's Hurricane Deposit (48.6 million pounds U₃O₈ indicated at an average grade of 34.5%) and 4 kilometres east of Cameco's La Rocque Lake Zone, where one drill hole returned 29.9% U₃O₈ over 7.0 metres.

Those grades matter for more than context. A single discovery in this corridor can plug meaningful pounds toward the deficit Goldman just quantified. Most uranium districts on Earth cannot make that claim.

Where This Maps Against the Macro

At a current market cap of roughly C$15 million spread across 16 properties, the market is pricing each Athabasca asset at about $600,000 (before any of the recent geophysics or the current drill program has returned results).

F4's team has already converted Athabasca discoveries into an $85 million sale, a C$1.14 billion takeout, and a defined resource elsewhere in the basin.

Here is why early stage matters at this specific moment.

A developer with a defined resource is already priced for the deficit. Utilities, strategics, and majors have spent the last few years pricing those assets against the gap Goldman just quantified.

An explorer drilling its first targets in the same basin is not.

That is the leverage. If the deficit thesis is right and the Athabasca remains the most productive uranium district on Earth, the re-rating moves backward through the discovery curve as the macro tightens.

F4 sits early in that curve with 16 properties.

Sixteen chances at being the next name pulled forward, with a drill program already running and partner capital paying the bill.

Most holes will not be discoveries. The ones that are tend to come from teams that know the basin, in ground that already shows the right signals.

For more information on F4 Uranium and its Athabasca Basin portfolio, visit f4uranium.com or contact investor relations at [email protected].

⚛️ Wrapping Up

Goldman's analysis added 62 million pounds to the demand side of the uranium ledger. The supply side did not move. The 2.3 billion pound number is the result of those two arrows pointing in different directions for the next twenty years.

The pounds that close that gap are not sitting in any mine plan today. Some have to come from deposits that have not been found yet, in places where the geology is generous enough for the math to actually work.

The Athabasca Basin is one of the very few places on Earth where the math works. F4 Uranium is exploring 16 properties inside that basin, run by the team that has made four discoveries there already, with a drill bit currently turning at Murphy Lake.

Sometimes the uranium gap gets closed by long-term contracts.

Sometimes by inventory drawdowns.

And sometimes by a drill bit that finally started turning in northern Saskatchewan this month.

For more information on F4 Uranium's work across the Athabasca Basin, visit f4uranium.com or contact the team at [email protected].

Disclosure: Nuclear Update (“NU”) is an independent publication focused on uranium, energy, and related markets. Data and information in this article are provided from third-party sources, and NU is not responsible for their accuracy or completeness. Readers should always perform their own research and due diligence on any company or investment discussed. NU does not provide personalized investment advice and is not an investment advisor; any companies or profiles mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. NU received compensation from F4 Uranium for the preparation and dissemination of this sponsored edition.

DISCLAIMER: The content in this article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. It should not be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Markets move quickly, opinions can change, and outcomes are uncertain. Always consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions. NU and its authors are not responsible for any gains or losses arising from the use of this information.